rivomarkets

michaeltf31

+$18.5K
Tracked Trades
1,582
First Seen
Aug 25, 2026
Last Trade
Sep 18, 2026
Followers
113

michaeltf31 is a Kalshi trader with 1,582 large trades tracked by RivoMarkets, 209 wins and 901 losses on settled markets, $18.5K net profit on those trades. Most recent public trade: BTC price up in next 15 mins? on Sep 18.

Win rate
19%
Return on settled
+94%
Money traded
$119.9K
Typical trade
$4
Copy score
17/100
Kalshi rank
#418

Profit over time

+$21.3K-$4.1K
Sep 9Sep 18

Win rate against the odds

PaidTradesImpliedWonEdge
Under 20¢12186%12%+6 pts
20 to 40¢15930%41%+12 pts
40 to 60¢8250%66%+16 pts
60 to 80¢5567%100%+33 pts
Over 80¢6794%100%+6 pts

Results by bet size

TradesWonProfit
$0 to $039613%+$51
$0 to $439522%+$956
$4 to $2239518%+$3.3K
$22 to $31K39526%+$14.2K

Categories

TradesWonProfit
Crypto48100%+$949
Sports2100%+$208

Side taken

Yes 37%63% No

If you had copied michaeltf31

$100 per trade, last 90 days

+$189342
Profit
on $111000 staked
209-901
Record
19% win rate
+171%
Return
184 still open
Profit over time1110 settled trades
+$189.3K+$0
Sep 7Sep 14
-$48.1K
Max drawdown
767502% below peak
3.9×
Return / drawdown
profit per $1 of the dip
3.10×
Profit factor
$279.4K won vs $90.1K lost
+8.0 pts
Edge vs implied
19% won at 11¢ avg
Longest losing streak
291
Deepest drawdown
571 trades

By category

other1106 settled+171%

Tracked entries, settled markets. No fees or slippage.

Open positions

6 open positions worth $3.6K

The markets michaeltf31 is in right now, the side, the size and the price paid. Subscribers see each one as it opens and can copy it in one click.

See what michaeltf31 is holding

Recent positions

BTC price up in next 15 mins?
Sep 18, avg 81¢
SELLNO$1.2KOpen
BTC price up in next 15 mins?
Sep 18, 11 fills, avg 27¢
BUYYES$540-$540
BTC price up in next 15 mins?
Sep 18, 2 fills, avg 57¢
SELLNO$510Open
See every position across 54 markets

Biggest wins

  1. 1
    BTC price up in next 15 mins?
    $2.1K on Yes, Sep 16
    +$24.4K
  2. 2
    BTC price up in next 15 mins?
    $1.6K on Yes, Sep 18
    +$1.6K
  3. 3
    BTC price up in next 15 mins?
    $392 on No, Sep 14
    +$1.2K
See all of their wins

Most traded markets

TradesWonProfit
BTC price up in next 15 mins?156418%+$18.3K
Milwaukee wins3100%+$333
yes Seattle,yes Pittsburgh,yes Dallas,yes Chicago wins by over 2.5 points,yes Detroit wins by over 3.5 points,yes Over 42.5 points scored,yes Over 45.5 points scored,no Over 50.5 points scored1+$0
yes Abejas de Leon,yes Fuerza Regia,yes Los Angeles A,yes HOU Texans,yes LA Chargers,yes Atlanta,yes Connecticut1+$0
KXBTC15M-26SEP100515-151+$0

When they trade

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
12am6am12pm6pm11pm

Activity, last 90 days

Jun 21Sep 18

Profit by month

Sep 2026+$18.5K

Similar Kalshi traders

Copy michaeltf31 on autopilot or by hand.

Everything on this page, live instead of a day late: every position as it opens, one-click copy from the tape, and autopilot that opens the same Kalshi position within seconds through your own API key, inside a per-trade and per-day ceiling you set. Alerts in the app and on Telegram, the simulator on their live record, and paper trading before real money.