rivomarkets

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Stats as of

notrealap

+$750
Tracked Trades
232
First Seen
Feb 11, 2026
Last Trade
Oct 19, 2026
Best In NFL
58% won · 19 settled · +$829

notrealap is a Kalshi trader with 232 trades tracked by RivoMarkets, 49 wins and 148 losses on settled markets, $750 net profit on those trades. Most recent public trade: Full Game: over 34.5 points scored? on Oct 19.

Win rate
25%
Return on settled
+18%
Money traded
$6.9K
Typical trade
$3
Avg entry
6¢
Kalshi rank
#3,663

Profit over time

+$766-$264
Feb 11Oct 19

Win rate against the odds

PaidTradesImpliedWonEdge
Under 20¢1585%13%+8 pts
20 to 40¢3129%36%+7 pts
40 to 60¢1948%50%+2 pts
60 to 80¢868%80%+12 pts
Over 80¢1690%100%+10 pts

Results by bet size

TradesWonProfit
$0 to $15835%+$75
$1 to $35814%-$34
$3 to $95810%-$60
$9 to $1.0K5844%+$769

Categories

TradesWonProfit
NFL2958%+$829
Parlays1108%+$4
Bitcoin5254%+$49
Soccer3129%-$55
Tennis30%-$39
Mentions30%-$29

Side taken

Yes 76%24% No

If you had copied notrealap

$100 per trade, last 90 days

+$10518
Profit
on $8800 staked
33-55
Record
38% win rate
+120%
Return
1 still open
Profit over time88 settled trades
+$10.9K-$2.0K
Sep 7Oct 19
-$2.5K
Max drawdown
755% below peak
4.3×
Return / drawdown
profit per $1 of the dip
2.91×
Profit factor
$16.0K won vs $5.5K lost
+14.7 pts
Edge vs implied
38% won at 23¢ avg
Longest losing streak
14
Deepest drawdown
33 trades

By category

crypto25 settled+516%
sports63 settled-38%

Tracked entries, settled markets. No fees or slippage.

Open positions

1 open position worth $47

The markets notrealap is in right now, the side, the size and the price paid. Subscribers see each one as it opens and can copy it in one click.

See what notrealap is holding

Recent positions

MarketSideEntryAmountResult
Full Game: over 34.5 points scored?
Oct 19
Yes42¢$48+$66
Green Bay wins
Oct 19
Sold Nosold 1¢$12Exited
Dallas wins
Oct 19
Sold Nosold 92¢$604Exited
See every position across 156 markets

Biggest wins

  1. 1
    Denver wins
    $287 on Yes at 38¢, Sep 28
    +$478
  2. 2
    yes Real Madrid,yes Barcelona wins by more than 1.5 goals,yes Over 1.5 goals scored,yes Over 2.5 goals scored,yes New York G wins by over 6.5 points
    $193 on Yes at 46¢, Sep 14
    +$226
  3. 3
    Baltimore wins
    $616 on Yes at 75¢, Sep 27
    +$208
See all of their wins

Most traded markets

EntryTradesWonProfit
Green Bay wins87¢2100%+$155
Dallas wins31¢50%-$263
yes Lionel Messi: 2+,yes Kylian Mbappe: 2+,yes Erling Haaland: 2+,yes Argentina wins by more than 1.5 goals,yes France wins by more than 2.5 goals,yes Norway wins by more than 1.5 goals0¢20%-$9
Baltimore wins75¢4100%+$208
Denver wins38¢4100%+$478

When they trade

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
12am6am12pm6pm11pm

Activity, last 90 days

Jul 22Oct 19

Profit by month

Feb 2026+$44
Mar 2026-$59
Jun 2026+$172
Jul 2026-$421
Sep 2026+$832
Oct 2026+$182

Kalshi leaderboards

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