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Stats as of
provincial.marmot3421
+$3.9K
- Tracked Trades
- 387
- First Seen
- Aug 28, 2026
- Last Trade
- Nov 8, 2026
- Best In Bitcoin
- 43% won · 239 settled · +$3.8K
provincial.marmot3421 is a Kalshi trader with 387 trades tracked by RivoMarkets, 115 wins and 160 losses on settled markets, $3.9K net profit on those trades. Most recent public trade: BTC price up in next 15 mins? on Nov 8.
- Win rate
- 42%
- Return on settled
- +10%
- Money traded
- $67.1K
- Typical trade
- $96.36
- Avg entry
- 43¢
- Kalshi rank
- #1,815
Profit over time
+$3.9K-$1.5K
Sep 11Nov 8
Win rate against the odds
PaidTradesImpliedWonEdge
Under 20¢5211%11%+1 pts
20 to 40¢12230%28%-2 pts
40 to 60¢11249%53%+3 pts
60 to 80¢5769%81%+12 pts
Over 80¢4492%100%+8 pts
Results by bet size
TradesWonProfit
$0 to $489732%+$531.84
$48 to $969729%-$1.3K
$96 to $2399743%-$581.85
$239 to $1.2K9683%+$5.2K
Categories
TradesWonProfit
Bitcoin33743%+$3.7K
Ethereum2140%+$71.43
Other crypto625%+$68.03
Solana525%-$16.05
XRP350%+$33.91
Soccer938%+$25.62
Side taken
Yes 59%41% No
If you had copied provincial.marmot3421
$100 per bet, last 90 days
+$1,486.23
Profit
on $25,300.00 staked
105-148
Record
42% win rate
+6%
Return
+$1.5K-$219.71
Sep 7Nov 9
-$2.2K
Max drawdown
242% below peak
0.7×
Return / drawdown
profit per $1 of the dip
1.10×
Profit factor
$16.3K won vs $14.8K lost
+2.5 pts
Edge vs implied
42% won at 39¢ avg
- Longest losing streak
- 16
- Deepest drawdown
- 56 trades
By category
sports11 settled+132%
crypto241 settled+1%
Tracked entries, settled markets. No fees or slippage.
Recent positions
MarketSideEntryAmountResult
BTC price up in next 15 mins?
Nov 8
XRP price up in next 15 mins?
Nov 8, 5 fills
BTC price up in next 15 mins?
Nov 8, 6 fills
Biggest wins
- 1+$556.81BTC price up in next 15 mins?$985.37 on Yes at 64¢, Nov 3
- 2+$556.51BTC price up in next 15 mins?$866.76 on No at 61¢, Nov 1
- 3+$405.68BTC price up in next 15 mins?$190.91 on No at 32¢, Oct 29
Most traded markets
EntryTradesWonProfit
BTC price up in next 15 mins?44¢33743%+$3.7K
ETH price up in next 15 mins?51¢2140%+$71.43
NEAR price up in next 15 mins?52¢350%+$360.23
SOL price up in next 15 mins?51¢525%-$16.05
ZEC price up in next 15 mins?49¢30%-$292.20
When they trade
Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
12am6am12pm6pm11pm
Activity, last 90 days
Aug 11Nov 8
Profit by month
Sep 2026+$650.12
Oct 2026-$1.5K
Nov 2026+$4.7K
Kalshi leaderboards
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