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Stats as of

rough.guilt

-$4.0K
Tracked Trades
591
First Seen
Jan 25, 2026
Last Trade
Oct 22, 2026
Best In Tennis
57% won · 337 settled · +$2.3K

rough.guilt is a Kalshi trader with 591 trades tracked by RivoMarkets, 72 wins and 483 losses on settled markets, -$4.0K net profit on those trades. Most recent public trade: yes New England,yes Drake Maye: 200+ on Oct 22.

Win rate
13%
Return on settled
-17%
Money traded
$36.4K
Typical trade
$23
Avg entry
5¢
Kalshi rank
#5,642

Profit over time

+$241-$4.5K
Jan 25Oct 22

Win rate against the odds

PaidTradesImpliedWonEdge
Under 20¢4436%4%-2 pts
20 to 40¢6029%32%+3 pts
40 to 60¢6345%51%+6 pts
60 to 80¢1674%46%-28 pts
Over 80¢987%0%-87 pts

Results by bet size

TradesWonProfit
$0 to $1114812%-$193
$12 to $2314815%+$576
$23 to $461486%-$1.5K
$46 to $3.8K14720%-$2.9K

Categories

TradesWonProfit
Parlays3123%-$5.7K
Tennis20527%+$931
Baseball323%-$34
Basketball333%+$42
NFL2131%+$433
College basketball3100%+$786

Side taken

Yes 95%5% No

If you had copied rough.guilt

$100 per trade, last 90 days

-$3596
Profit
on $43600 staked
66-370
Record
15% win rate
-8%
Return
8 still open
Profit over time436 settled trades
+$4.9K-$6.0K
Aug 10Oct 19
-$13.4K
Max drawdown
210% below peak
—
Return / drawdown
no profit to weigh yet
0.90×
Profit factor
$33.4K won vs $37.0K lost
-1.2 pts
Edge vs implied
15% won at 16¢ avg
Longest losing streak
58
Deepest drawdown
357 trades

By category

sports436 settled-8%

Tracked entries, settled markets. No fees or slippage.

Open positions

3 open positions worth $117

The markets rough.guilt is in right now, the side, the size and the price paid. Subscribers see each one as it opens and can copy it in one click.

See what rough.guilt is holding

Recent positions

MarketSideEntryAmountResult
yes New England,yes Drake Maye: 200+
Oct 22
Yes32¢$95-$95
yes Caleb Williams: 2+,yes Drake Maye: 3+,yes Caleb Williams: 225+,yes Drake Maye: 225+,yes D'Andre Swift: 60+
Oct 22
Yes5¢$23-$23
yes Caleb Williams: 2+,yes Drake Maye: 2+,yes Caleb Williams: 225+,yes Drake Maye: 225+,yes CHI Bears D/ST: 1+
Oct 22
Yes3¢$23-$23
See every position across 377 markets

Biggest wins

  1. 1
    yes Detroit,yes A's,yes San Francisco,yes San Diego,yes New York Y,yes Houston
    $19 on Yes at 2¢, Sep 9
    +$1.1K
  2. 2
    Benjamin O'Connell wins
    $577 on Yes at 40¢, Sep 6
    +$868
  3. 3
    Valentin Vacherot wins
    $211 on Yes at 20¢, Oct 4
    +$836
See all of their wins

Most traded markets

EntryTradesWonProfit
yes Davante Adams: 2+,yes Terrance Ferguson: 1+,yes Cam Skattebo: 1+,no Over 42.5 points scored1¢20%-$23
KXMVECROSSCATEGORY-SHARD1-S2026D1D2AF2BD36-906C2842E181+$0
KXMVECROSSCATEGORY-SHARD1-S202686544E6AAF5-BC49DB0E7451+$0
Taylah Preston wins16¢180%-$683
Tomas Martin Etcheverry wins43¢270%-$479

When they trade

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
12am6am12pm6pm11pm

Activity, last 90 days

Jul 25Oct 22

Profit by month

Jan 2026-$1.0K
Feb 2026-$706
Mar 2026+$1.5K
Apr 2026-$474
May 2026-$1.5K
Jun 2026-$465
Jul 2026-$686
Aug 2026-$253
Sep 2026+$1.6K
Oct 2026-$2.0K

Kalshi leaderboards

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