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Stats as of

stale

+$1.9K
Tracked Trades
387
First Seen
Aug 5, 2026
Last Trade
Oct 31, 2026
Best In US elections
17% won · 52 settled · +$1.9K

Market maker

Market makers buy both sides of the same markets and earn the spread between them. Each of their trades is half of a hedge, not a pick, so copying one side does not copy how they make money.

Active politics traders who bet one side: crackitydanieljones, Scottaholic, heforgotpoland

stale is a Kalshi trader with 387 trades tracked by RivoMarkets, 9 wins and 45 losses on settled markets, $1.9K net profit on those trades. Most recent public trade: Will Democratics win the Senate race in Texas? on Oct 31.

Win rate
17%
Return on settled
+43%
Money traded
$43.4K
Typical trade
$18.96
Avg entry
27¢
Kalshi rank
#2,947

Profit over time

+$1.9K-$1.5K
Aug 5Oct 25

Win rate against the odds

PaidTradesImpliedWonEdge
Under 20¢529%8%-1 pts
20 to 40¢12732%0%-32 pts
40 to 60¢1347%25%-22 pts
60 to 80¢17368%0%-68 pts
Over 80¢2292%100%+8 pts

Results by bet size

TradesWonProfit
$0 to $39725%+$1.59
$4 to $19970%-$91.00
$19 to $64974%+$329.09
$67 to $2.4K9647%+$1.6K

Categories

TradesWonProfit
US elections38517%+$1.9K
Baseball20%-$11.69

Side taken

Yes 63%37% No

If you had copied stale

$100 per bet, last 90 days

+$1,923.59
Profit
on $1,000.00 staked
4-6
Record
40% win rate
+192%
Return
10 still open
Profit over time10 settled trades
+$2.1K-$107.69
Aug 3Oct 26

Drawdown and edge need 20 settled trades to mean anything. 10 so far.

By category

politics8 settled+265%

Tracked entries, settled markets. No fees or slippage.

Open positions

6 open positions worth $9.7K

The markets stale is in right now, the side, the size and the price paid. Subscribers see each one as it opens and can copy it in one click.

See what stale is holding

Recent positions

MarketSideEntryAmountResult
Will Democratics win the Senate race in Texas?
Oct 31, 73 fills
Yes70¢sold 70¢$301.59Exited
Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Texas
Oct 31, 62 fills
Yes30¢sold 31¢$303.20Exited
Will the Republican party win the governorship in Texas
Oct 31, 5 fills
Sold Nosold 35¢$730.00Exited
See every position across 17 markets

Biggest wins

  1. 1
    Will Francesca Hong be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Wisconsin?
    $142.64 on No at 4¢, Aug 12
    +$3.4K
  2. 2
    Will the margin of victory for Abdul El-Sayed in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary be between 0% and 3%?
    $279.60 on Yes at 52¢, Aug 5
    +$258.09
  3. 3
    Who will win the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?
    $1.8K on Yes at 89¢, Aug 25
    +$224.21
See all of their wins

Most traded markets

EntryTradesWonProfit
Will Republicans win the Senate race in Texas?46¢101+$0.00
Will Haley Stevens be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Michigan?5¢350%-$916.59
Will Abdul El-Sayed be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Michigan?8¢220%-$834.54
Will Democratics win the Senate race in Texas?41¢84+$0.00
Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Texas62¢79+$0.00

When they trade

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
12am6am12pm6pm11pm

Activity, last 90 days

Aug 3Oct 31

Profit by month

Aug 2026+$1.9K
Oct 2026-$11.69

Kalshi leaderboards

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