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Stats as of

cigarettes

0xd218e474776403a330142299f7796e8ba32eb5c9

+$43.7K
Tracked Trades
5,687
First Seen
Aug 18, 2026
Last Trade
Nov 4, 2026
Best In Fed and rates
90% won · 328 settled · +$105.8K

cigarettes is a Polymarket trader with 5,687 trades tracked by RivoMarkets, 4,018 wins and 1,203 losses on settled markets, $43.7K net profit on those trades. Most recent public trade: Will the Democrats win the Nebraska governor race in 2026? on Nov 4.

Win rate
77%
Return on settled
+1%
Money traded
$6.6M
Typical trade
$810.00
Avg entry
67¢
Polymarket rank
#755

Profit over time

+$159.1K-$30.1K
Aug 18Nov 4

Win rate against the odds

PaidTradesImpliedWonEdge
Under 20¢10014%11%-3 pts
20 to 40¢29830%22%-8 pts
40 to 60¢81151%63%+12 pts
60 to 80¢136971%69%-2 pts
Over 80¢310993%93%+0 pts

Results by bet size

TradesWonProfit
$1 to $615142276%+$32.0K
$615 to $810142274%+$21.8K
$810 to $1.1K142284%-$9.1K
$1.1K to $30K142174%-$982.68

Categories

TradesWonProfit
Soccer251478%-$2.2K
US elections54988%+$36.6K
World politics64966%-$96.4K
Esports38865%-$11.4K
NFL21556%-$44.3K
College football18458%+$2.7K

Side taken

Yes 25%75% No

If you had copied cigarettes

$100 per bet, last 90 days

-$1,423.68
Profit
on $224,300.00 staked
1574-669
Record
70% win rate
-1%
Return
135 still open
Profit over time2243 settled trades
+$184.65-$2.0K
Aug 17Nov 2
-$3.3K
Max drawdown
563% below peak
—
Return / drawdown
no profit to weigh yet
0.98×
Profit factor
$65.5K won vs $66.9K lost
-0.1 pts
Edge vs implied
70% won at 70¢ avg
Longest losing streak
7
Deepest drawdown
1149 trades

By category

politics173 settled+10%
culture402 settled-0%
sports1647 settled-2%
finance16 settled-5%

Tracked entries, settled markets. No fees or slippage.

Open positions

133 open positions worth $395.6K

The markets cigarettes is in right now, the side, the size and the price paid. Subscribers see each one as it opens and can copy it in one click.

See what cigarettes is holding

Recent positions

MarketSideEntryAmountResult
Will the Democrats win the Nebraska governor race in 2026?
Nov 4
No86¢$860.00+$140.00
Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?
Nov 4, 20 fills
No90¢$16.3K+$1.9K
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Nov 4, 33 fills
No87¢$27.5K+$4.2K
See every position across 2,247 markets

Biggest wins

  1. 1
    Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
    $68.8K on Yes at 53¢, Sep 15
    +$60.3K
  2. 2
    Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
    $64.3K on No at 55¢, Sep 16
    +$52.1K
  3. 3
    Will Minnesota Lynx win the 2026 WNBA Finals?
    $43.3K on No at 54¢, Sep 26
    +$37.5K
See all of their wins

Most traded markets

EntryTradesWonProfit
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?86¢18598%+$14.0K
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?59¢4360%+$11.7K
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?69¢3468%-$1.9K
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?83¢118100%+$21.0K
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?99¢145100%+$1.2K

When they trade

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
12am6am12pm6pm11pm

Activity, last 90 days

Aug 7Nov 4

Profit by month

Aug 2026-$2.1K
Sep 2026+$132.4K
Oct 2026-$118.3K
Nov 2026+$31.7K

How they build positions

Opened a new position77%
Added to a position18%
Trimmed a position3%
Closed a position2%

Polymarket leaderboards

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