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Stats as of

elmcap2

0xed107a85a4585a381e48c7f7ca4144909e7dd2e5

+$325.9K
Tracked Trades
792
First Seen
Jul 31, 2026
Last Trade
Nov 4, 2026
Best In Fed and rates
100% won · 135 settled · +$287.1K

This trader is a closer

70% of this trader's buys are at 95¢ or higher, on outcomes that are nearly decided. The win rate is high because the odds are short: copying them risks 95¢ or more to make 5¢ or less. If you want better odds, skip their 95¢+ buys or pick someone else.

elmcap2 is a Polymarket trader with 792 trades tracked by RivoMarkets, 469 wins and 83 losses on settled markets, $325.9K net profit on those trades. Most recent public trade: Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? on Nov 4.

Win rate
85%
Return on settled
+4%
Money traded
$9.7M
Typical trade
$1.8K
Avg entry
94¢
Polymarket rank
#157

Profit over time

+$325.9K-$6.5K
Jul 31Nov 4

Win rate against the odds

PaidTradesImpliedWonEdge
Under 20¢29%
20 to 40¢1133%50%+17 pts
40 to 60¢5354%64%+11 pts
60 to 80¢12271%60%-11 pts
Over 80¢60494%95%+1 pts

Results by bet size

TradesWonProfit
$8 to $82019879%+$3.4K
$820 to $1.8K19878%-$7.7K
$1.8K to $5.3K19883%-$17.7K
$5.3K to $475K19898%+$347.9K

Categories

TradesWonProfit
Fed and rates137100%+$287.1K
US elections103100%+$75.9K
US politics79100%+$4.3K
World politics9057%-$25.6K
Tech and AI31100%+$2.3K
MMA24769%-$19.2K

Side taken

Yes 27%73% No

If you had copied elmcap2

$100 per bet, last 90 days

-$520.66
Profit
on $13,000.00 staked
96-34
Record
74% win rate
-4%
Return
39 still open
Profit over time130 settled trades
+$305.79-$528.18
Aug 3Nov 2
-$996.95
Max drawdown
241% below peak
—
Return / drawdown
no profit to weigh yet
0.85×
Profit factor
$2.9K won vs $3.4K lost
-2.9 pts
Edge vs implied
74% won at 77¢ avg
Longest losing streak
3
Deepest drawdown
70 trades

By category

finance8 settled+3%
culture7 settled+3%
politics18 settled-1%
sports93 settled-6%

Tracked entries, settled markets. No fees or slippage.

Open positions

37 open positions worth $1.0M

The markets elmcap2 is in right now, the side, the size and the price paid. Subscribers see each one as it opens and can copy it in one click.

See what elmcap2 is holding

Recent positions

MarketSideEntryAmountResult
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Nov 4, 13 fills
No100¢$159.7K+$320.08
Will the Democrats win the Minnesota governor race in 2026?
Nov 4, 2 fills
Yes99¢$2.5K+$25.00
Will the Republicans win the Minnesota governor race in 2026?
Nov 4, 2 fills
No99¢$9.6K+$122.54
See every position across 210 markets

Biggest wins

  1. 1
    Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
    $2.2M on Yes at 94¢, Oct 28
    +$145.7K
  2. 2
    Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
    $1.7M on No at 94¢, Oct 28
    +$110.0K
  3. 3
    Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
    $925.5K on Yes at 94¢, Oct 31
    +$58.9K
See all of their wins

Most traded markets

EntryTradesWonProfit
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?94¢32100%+$145.7K
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?94¢19100%+$110.0K
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?94¢7100%+$58.9K
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?99¢3100%+$4.1K
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?99¢57100%+$6.7K

When they trade

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
12am6am12pm6pm11pm

Activity, last 90 days

Aug 7Nov 4

Profit by month

Jul 2026+$802.37
Aug 2026+$20.7K
Sep 2026+$11.9K
Oct 2026+$289.3K
Nov 2026+$3.1K

How they build positions

Added to a position64%
Opened a new position26%
Trimmed a position7%
Closed a position4%

Polymarket leaderboards

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