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Stats as of

SquirrelTheMerchant

0xfb593511b24df1edff63c35de81c72d5733683f9

+$26.5K
Tracked Trades
385
First Seen
Aug 20, 2026
Last Trade
Nov 3, 2026
Best In Fed and rates
100% won · 28 settled · +$63.3K

SquirrelTheMerchant is a Polymarket trader with 385 trades tracked by RivoMarkets, 118 wins and 61 losses on settled markets, $26.5K net profit on those trades. Most recent public trade: Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026? on Nov 3.

Win rate
66%
Return on settled
+11%
Money traded
$596.7K
Typical trade
$1.0K
Avg entry
63¢
Polymarket rank
#1,088

Profit over time

+$66.0K+$0.00
Aug 27Nov 3

Win rate against the odds

PaidTradesImpliedWonEdge
Under 20¢712%
20 to 40¢2032%40%+8 pts
40 to 60¢4750%64%+14 pts
60 to 80¢15772%54%-18 pts
Over 80¢15487%90%+3 pts

Results by bet size

TradesWonProfit
$0 to $7059762%+$1.2K
$713 to $1.0K9668%-$1.8K
$1.0K to $1.8K9659%-$11.3K
$1.8K to $12K9678%+$38.4K

Categories

TradesWonProfit
World politics26147%-$48.0K
US elections6092%+$10.0K
Fed and rates39100%+$63.3K
Companies9+$0.00
Soccer13100%+$1.2K
Entertainment3+$0.00

Side taken

Yes 68%32% No

If you had copied SquirrelTheMerchant

$100 per bet, last 90 days

+$102.99
Profit
on $3,400.00 staked
25-9
Record
74% win rate
+3%
Return
18 still open
Profit over time34 settled trades
+$270.95-$53.42
Aug 17Nov 2
-$459.94
Max drawdown
113% below peak
0.2×
Return / drawdown
profit per $1 of the dip
1.11×
Profit factor
$1.0K won vs $900.00 lost
+2.2 pts
Edge vs implied
74% won at 71¢ avg
Longest losing streak
3
Deepest drawdown
6 trades

By category

politics30 settled-8%

Tracked entries, settled markets. No fees or slippage.

Open positions

15 open positions worth $119.4K

The markets SquirrelTheMerchant is in right now, the side, the size and the price paid. Subscribers see each one as it opens and can copy it in one click.

See what SquirrelTheMerchant is holding

Recent positions

MarketSideEntryAmountResult
Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?
Nov 3
Yes39¢$780.00+$1.2K
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
Nov 3, 6 fills
No68¢sold 75¢$6.8K+$3.2K
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Nov 3, 24 fills
No83¢sold 83¢$27.3KExited
See every position across 54 markets

Biggest wins

  1. 1
    Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
    $47.7K on Yes at 43¢, Sep 13
    +$62.2K
  2. 2
    US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?
    $37.2K on Yes at 83¢, Oct 22
    +$7.5K
  3. 3
    US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?
    $20.1K on Yes at 86¢, Oct 25
    +$3.3K
See all of their wins

Most traded markets

EntryTradesWonProfit
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?43¢35100%+$62.2K
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?83¢24+$0.00
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?79¢490%-$36.7K
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?69¢45+$0.00
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?83¢29100%+$7.5K

When they trade

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
12am6am12pm6pm11pm

Activity, last 90 days

Aug 6Nov 3

Profit by month

Aug 2026+$44.6K
Sep 2026+$19.6K
Oct 2026-$33.1K
Nov 2026-$4.7K

How they build positions

Trimmed a position68%
Added to a position13%
Opened a new position12%
Closed a position7%

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