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Stats as of
critical.firefly4504
+$80.75
- Tracked Trades
- 262
- First Seen
- Oct 3, 2026
- Last Trade
- Oct 20, 2026
- Best In Bitcoin
- 62% won · 204 settled · +$2.0K
critical.firefly4504 is a Kalshi trader with 262 trades tracked by RivoMarkets, 107 wins and 70 losses on settled markets, $80.75 net profit on those trades. Most recent public trade: BTC price up in next 15 mins? on Oct 20.
- Win rate
- 60%
- Return on settled
- +0%
- Money traded
- $44.5K
- Typical trade
- $114.86
- Avg entry
- 35¢
- Kalshi rank
- #2,886
Profit over time
+$1.6K-$652.00
Oct 3Oct 20
Win rate against the odds
PaidTradesImpliedWonEdge
Under 20¢247%9%+2 pts
20 to 40¢3232%44%+12 pts
40 to 60¢7052%43%-9 pts
60 to 80¢7069%81%+12 pts
Over 80¢6691%90%-1 pts
Results by bet size
TradesWonProfit
$1 to $906640%-$229.47
$91 to $1156659%-$169.61
$116 to $1986581%+$2.4K
$199 to $9496558%-$1.9K
Categories
TradesWonProfit
Bitcoin25361%+$534.17
Baseball933%-$453.42
Side taken
Yes 58%42% No
If you had copied critical.firefly4504
$100 per bet, last 90 days
-$148.07
Profit
on $15,700.00 staked
90-67
Record
57% win rate
-1%
Return
+$233.23-$165.53
Sep 28Nov 9
-$945.14
Max drawdown
224% below peak
—
Return / drawdown
no profit to weigh yet
0.98×
Profit factor
$6.6K won vs $6.7K lost
-0.1 pts
Edge vs implied
57% won at 57¢ avg
- Longest losing streak
- 6
- Deepest drawdown
- 50 trades
By category
crypto149 settled-0%
sports6 settled-50%
Tracked entries, settled markets. No fees or slippage.
Recent positions
MarketSideEntryAmountResult
BTC price up in next 15 mins?
Oct 20
BTC price up in next 15 mins?
Oct 20
BTC price up in next 15 mins?
Oct 20
Biggest wins
- 1+$815.39BTC price up in next 15 mins?$478.88 on Yes at 37¢, Oct 3
- 2+$650.09BTC price up in next 15 mins?$723.81 on Yes at 53¢, Oct 3
- 3+$565.51BTC price up in next 15 mins?$637.70 on Yes at 53¢, Oct 17
Most traded markets
EntryTradesWonProfit
BTC price up in next 15 mins?34¢25361%+$534.17
Tampa Bay wins72¢2100%+$57.21
San Diego wins66¢10%-$293.02
Yokohama DeNA BayStars vs Yomiuri Giants: First Inning Run?62¢1100%+$119.40
Yomiuri Giants wins60¢10%-$194.55
When they trade
Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
12am6am12pm6pm11pm
Activity, last 90 days
Jul 23Oct 20
Profit by month
Oct 2026+$80.75
Kalshi leaderboards
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