rivomarkets
Kalshi

excessive.canary4409

+$17.7K
Tracked Trades
1,088
First Seen
Jun 20, 2026
Last Trade
Sep 19, 2026
Followers
148

excessive.canary4409 is a Kalshi trader with 1,088 large trades tracked by RivoMarkets, 25 wins and 4 losses on settled markets, $17.7K net profit on those trades. Most recent public trade: Will the United States acquire any part of Greenland before 2029? on Sep 19.

Win rate
86%
Return on settled
+651%
Money traded
$117.6K
Typical trade
$8
Copy score
69/100
Kalshi rank
#433

Profit over time

+$17.7K-$12
Aug 24Sep 2

Win rate against the odds

PaidTradesImpliedWonEdge
Under 20¢15013%75%+62 pts
20 to 40¢11725%100%+75 pts
40 to 60¢8651%0%-51 pts
60 to 80¢33573%100%+27 pts
Over 80¢39688%90%+2 pts

Results by bet size

TradesWonProfit
$0 to $327185%+$11
$3 to $827175%-$1
$8 to $3427150%-$19
$34 to $9.2K271100%+$17.7K

Categories

TradesWonProfit
Culture10+$0
Politics6+$0
Crypto2100%+$17.6K

Side taken

Yes 29%71% No

If you had copied excessive.canary4409

$100 per trade, last 90 days

+$2618
Profit
on $2900 staked
25-4
Record
86% win rate
+90%
Return
669 still open
Profit over time29 settled trades
+$2.6K+$0
Jun 22Sep 14
-$167
Max drawdown
38% below peak
15.7×
Return / drawdown
profit per $1 of the dip
7.55×
Profit factor
$3.0K won vs $400 lost
+12.2 pts
Edge vs implied
86% won at 74¢ avg
Longest losing streak
1
Deepest drawdown
3 trades

By category

other27 settled+24%

Tracked entries, settled markets. No fees or slippage.

Open positions

40 open positions worth $104.5K

The markets excessive.canary4409 is in right now, the side, the size and the price paid. Subscribers see each one as it opens and can copy it in one click.

See what excessive.canary4409 is holding

Recent positions

Will the United States acquire any part of Greenland before 2029?
Sep 19, 6 fills, avg 83¢
BUYNO$15.6KOpen
Will the United States acquire any part of Greenland before 2029?
Sep 19, 18 fills, avg 78¢
BUYNO$3.1KOpen
Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Sep 17, 9 fills, avg 95¢
BUYNO$12.1KOpen
See every position across 47 markets

Biggest wins

  1. 1
    BTC price up in next 15 mins?
    $1.8K on No, Sep 2
    +$17.6K
  2. 2
    BTC price up in next 15 mins?
    $396 on No, Sep 2
    +$59
  3. 3
    Gold price up in next 15 mins?
    $418 on No, Sep 2
    +$25
See all of their wins

Most traded markets

TradesWonProfit
Will the United States acquire any part of Greenland before 2029?23+$0
Will Trump take back the Panama Canal?89+$0
Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist before 2027?32+$0
Filibuster weakened before 202710+$0
Will any Republican member of Congress call for Trump's impeachment before 2027?78+$0

When they trade

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
12am6am12pm6pm11pm

Activity, last 90 days

Jun 22Sep 19

Profit by month

Aug 2026-$9
Sep 2026+$17.7K

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