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Stats as of

lukewillert

+$2.4K
Tracked Trades
603
First Seen
Oct 28, 2025
Last Trade
Nov 8, 2026
Best In NBA
69% won · 55 settled · +$872.21

lukewillert is a Kalshi trader with 603 trades tracked by RivoMarkets, 224 wins and 224 losses on settled markets, $2.4K net profit on those trades. Most recent public trade: KXNFLGAME-26NOV08NYJKC-KC on Nov 8.

Win rate
50%
Return on settled
+5%
Money traded
$53.1K
Typical trade
$19.48
Avg entry
64¢
Kalshi rank
#2,519

Profit over time

+$2.4K-$1.3K
Oct 28Nov 8

Win rate against the odds

PaidTradesImpliedWonEdge
Under 20¢529%0%-9 pts
20 to 40¢11432%29%-4 pts
40 to 60¢25450%43%-7 pts
60 to 80¢12270%75%+5 pts
Over 80¢6188%92%+4 pts

Results by bet size

TradesWonProfit
$0 to $915138%-$99.69
$9 to $1915141%-$378.97
$19 to $4815153%-$313.54
$48 to $3.0K15069%+$3.2K

Categories

TradesWonProfit
College basketball4265%+$587.12
NFL11736%+$604.40
NBA6669%+$872.21
College football11549%-$73.83
Soccer7363%+$656.18
US elections5857%+$246.53

Side taken

Yes 77%23% No

If you had copied lukewillert

$100 per bet, last 90 days

-$1,987.78
Profit
on $32,900.00 staked
171-158
Record
52% win rate
-6%
Return
14 still open
Profit over time329 settled trades
+$0.00-$2.0K
Sep 28Nov 2
-$3.2K
Max drawdown
16248% below peak
—
Return / drawdown
no profit to weigh yet
0.87×
Profit factor
$13.8K won vs $15.8K lost
-0.0 pts
Edge vs implied
52% won at 52¢ avg
Longest losing streak
8
Deepest drawdown
80 trades

By category

politics32 settled-1%
sports296 settled-7%

Tracked entries, settled markets. No fees or slippage.

Open positions

10 open positions worth $952.19

The markets lukewillert is in right now, the side, the size and the price paid. Subscribers see each one as it opens and can copy it in one click.

See what lukewillert is holding

Recent positions

MarketSideEntryAmountResult
Kansas City wins
Nov 8, 7 fills
Yes79¢sold 80¢$5.0K+$1.3K
Kansas City wins by over 9.5 points?
Nov 8
No51¢$9.66-$9.66
Full Game: over 38.5 points scored?
Nov 8
No55¢$9.69+$7.93
See every position across 355 markets

Biggest wins

  1. 1
    KXNFLGAME-26NOV08NYJKC-KC
    $4.9K on Yes at 79¢, Nov 8
    +$1.3K
  2. 2
    Michael Porter Jr.: 1+ blocks
    $408.55 on Yes at 39¢, Oct 30
    +$639.01
  3. 3
    Alabama wins
    $248.51 on Yes at 34¢, Nov 7
    +$483.25
See all of their wins

Most traded markets

EntryTradesWonProfit
Golden State wins88¢10100%+$810.02
KXNFLGAME-26NOV08NYJKC-KC79¢3100%+$1.3K
Hawai'i wins by over 13.5 points94¢3100%+$221.61
Saint Louis wins82¢7100%+$447.85
Full Game: Over 160.5 points scored68¢50%-$1.0K

When they trade

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
12am6am12pm6pm11pm

Activity, last 90 days

Aug 11Nov 8

Profit by month

Oct 2025-$10.12
Apr 2026-$23.52
Jun 2026-$118.68
Sep 2026-$493.31
Oct 2026+$480.07
Nov 2026+$2.5K

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