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Stats as of

rafarogernovak

+$3.0K
Tracked Trades
261
First Seen
Jan 16, 2026
Last Trade
Nov 7, 2026
Best In Parlays
17% won · 48 settled · +$2.3K

rafarogernovak is a Kalshi trader with 261 trades tracked by RivoMarkets, 96 wins and 115 losses on settled markets, $3.0K net profit on those trades. Most recent public trade: yes Seattle,yes Cincinnati,yes New Orleans,yes Dallas,yes Denver,yes Detroit,yes Green Bay,yes Houston,yes Los Angeles R,yes San Francisco,yes New York G,yes Kansas City,yes Chicago on Nov 7.

Win rate
45%
Return on settled
+55%
Money traded
$7.6K
Typical trade
$14.44
Avg entry
16¢
Kalshi rank
#2,213

Profit over time

+$3.0K-$48.00
Jan 16Nov 7

Win rate against the odds

PaidTradesImpliedWonEdge
Under 20¢729%7%-2 pts
20 to 40¢4631%47%+17 pts
40 to 60¢8051%47%-4 pts
60 to 80¢4166%92%+27 pts
Over 80¢2291%83%-8 pts

Results by bet size

TradesWonProfit
$0 to $76621%-$26.14
$7 to $146538%+$2.1K
$15 to $366555%+$196.61
$37 to $3576571%+$681.56

Categories

TradesWonProfit
Soccer9857%+$411.47
Tennis5164%+$111.66
Parlays5717%+$2.3K
Bitcoin680%+$70.11
Other crypto3327%+$71.84
XRP250%+$17.98

Side taken

Yes 75%25% No

If you had copied rafarogernovak

$100 per bet, last 90 days

+$22,620.80
Profit
on $4,200.00 staked
13-29
Record
31% win rate
+539%
Return
Profit over time42 settled trades
+$22.6K-$1.0K
Aug 10Nov 2
-$1.2K
Max drawdown
never got above break-even
18.6×
Return / drawdown
profit per $1 of the dip
8.80×
Profit factor
$25.5K won vs $2.9K lost
+4.9 pts
Edge vs implied
31% won at 26¢ avg
Longest losing streak
7
Deepest drawdown
23 trades

By category

sports41 settled+554%

Tracked entries, settled markets. No fees or slippage.

Recent positions

MarketSideEntryAmountResult
yes Seattle,yes Cincinnati,yes New Orleans,yes Dallas,yes Denver,yes Detroit,yes Green Bay,yes Houston,yes Los Angeles R,yes San Francisco,yes New York G,yes Kansas City,yes Chicago
Nov 7
Yes0¢$9.25+$1.9K
Carl Emil Overbeck wins
Nov 4, 5 fills
Yes46¢$14.06+$16.51
Marco Cecchinato wins
Nov 4, 3 fills
Yes67¢$9.77+$4.81
See every position across 197 markets

Biggest wins

  1. 1
    yes Seattle,yes Cincinnati,yes New Orleans,yes Dallas,yes Denver,yes Detroit,yes Green Bay,yes Houston,yes Los Angeles R,yes San Francisco,yes New York G,yes Kansas City,yes Chicago
    $9.25 on Yes at 0¢, Nov 7
    +$1.9K
  2. 2
    yes Carlos Alcaraz,yes Shintaro Mochizuki,yes Michael Zheng,yes Darya Khomutsianskaya,yes Claire Liu,yes Elvina Kalieva,yes Qinwen Zheng,yes Iva Jovic
    $9.35 on Yes at 3¢, Oct 5
    +$313.06
  3. 3
    yes Alex de Minaur,yes Denis Shapovalov
    $95.02 on Yes at 26¢, Oct 3
    +$276.15
See all of their wins

Most traded markets

EntryTradesWonProfit
Over 0.5 1H goals scored?61¢986%+$160.77
yes Alex de Minaur,yes Denis Shapovalov26¢2100%+$276.15
Bitcoin price on Jun 23, 2026?78¢3100%+$67.91
Will Denis Shapovalov win set 2 in the Ben Shelton vs Denis Shapovalov match31¢2100%+$269.66
HYPE price up in next 15 mins?25¢3224%+$15.51

When they trade

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
12am6am12pm6pm11pm

Activity, last 90 days

Aug 10Nov 7

Profit by month

Jan 2026+$172.47
May 2026+$47.87
Jun 2026+$604.18
Jul 2026-$12.85
Aug 2026-$119.42
Sep 2026-$86.22
Oct 2026+$489.25
Nov 2026+$1.9K

Kalshi leaderboards

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