thepolemarch
-$5
- Tracked Trades
- 302
- First Seen
- Nov 20, 2025
- Last Trade
- Sep 22, 2026
- Followers
- 2
thepolemarch is a Kalshi trader with 302 large trades tracked by RivoMarkets, 2 wins and 5 losses on settled markets, -$5 net profit on those trades. Most recent public trade: KXDSENATESEATS-27-50 on Sep 22.
- Win rate
- 29%
- Return on settled
- -2%
- Money traded
- $28.5K
- Typical trade
- $12
- Copy score
- 10/100
- Kalshi rank
- #3,049
Profit over time
+$0-$58
Apr 5Jul 27
Win rate against the odds
PaidTradesImpliedWonEdge
Under 20¢6411%0%-11 pts
20 to 40¢1825%
40 to 60¢12450%0%-50 pts
60 to 80¢3566%100%+34 pts
Over 80¢6190%100%+10 pts
Results by bet size
TradesWonProfit
$0 to $4760%-$3
$4 to $12760%-$24
$12 to $907550%+$22
$90 to $2.0K75+$0
Categories
TradesWonProfit
Culture6+$0
Side taken
Yes 75%25% No
If you had copied thepolemarch
$100 per trade, last 90 days
-$326
Profit
on $600 staked
2-4
Record
33% win rate
-54%
Return
26 still open
+$0-$375
Jun 29Sep 21
Drawdown and edge need 20 settled trades to mean anything. 6 so far.
By category
other6 settled-54%
Tracked entries, settled markets. No fees or slippage.
Open positions
11 open positions worth $4.1K
The markets thepolemarch is in right now, the side, the size and the price paid. Subscribers see each one as it opens and can copy it in one click.
Recent positions
KXDSENATESEATS-27-50
Sep 22, avg 87¢
Will Democratics win the Senate race in South Carolina?
Sep 22, avg 87¢
Will Democrats hold 235 or more seats in the House after the 2026 midterms AND hold 51 or more seats in the Senate after the 2026 midterms?
Sep 22, 3 fills, avg 49¢
Biggest wins
- 1+$53Will Haley Stevens be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Michigan?$147 on No, Jul 27
Most traded markets
TradesWonProfit
Will Republicans win the House in 2026?36+$0
Will Democrats win the House in 2026?41+$0
Will Republicans win the U.S. Senate in 2026?39+$0
Will Democratics win the Senate race in Alaska?30+$0
Will Democrats win the U.S. Senate in 2026?46+$0
When they trade
Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
12am6am12pm6pm11pm
Activity, last 90 days
Jun 25Sep 22
Profit by month
Apr 2026-$19
Jul 2026+$14
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