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Stats as of

tough.change

-$2.5K
Tracked Trades
63
First Seen
Mar 10, 2026
Last Trade
Oct 20, 2026

tough.change is a Kalshi trader with 63 trades tracked by RivoMarkets, 4 wins and 29 losses on settled markets, -$2.5K net profit on those trades. Most recent public trade: Will Golden State win the 2026 Women's Pro Basketball Championship? on Oct 20.

Win rate
12%
Return on settled
-51%
Money traded
$20.6K
Typical trade
$57
Avg entry
25¢
Kalshi rank
#5,634

Profit over time

+$0-$2.5K
Mar 10Oct 8

Win rate against the odds

PaidTradesImpliedWonEdge
Under 20¢1714%0%-14 pts
20 to 40¢826%0%-26 pts
40 to 60¢554%75%+21 pts
60 to 80¢2773%0%-73 pts
Over 80¢681%100%+19 pts

Results by bet size

TradesWonProfit
$1 to $91611%-$21
$15 to $57169%-$296
$61 to $164160%-$340
$172 to $7.7K1522%-$1.8K

Categories

TradesWonProfit
WNBA2850%-$944
NBA196%-$843
Bitcoin160%-$699

Side taken

Yes 48%52% No

If you had copied tough.change

$100 per trade, last 90 days

-$55
Profit
on $600 staked
3-3
Record
50% win rate
-9%
Return
1 still open
Profit over time6 settled trades
+$145-$55
Sep 7Oct 5

Drawdown and edge need 20 settled trades to mean anything. 6 so far.

By category

sports6 settled-9%

Tracked entries, settled markets. No fees or slippage.

Open positions

1 open position worth $1.4K

The markets tough.change is in right now, the side, the size and the price paid. Subscribers see each one as it opens and can copy it in one click.

See what tough.change is holding

Recent positions

MarketSideEntryAmountResult
Will Golden State win the 2026 Women's Pro Basketball Championship?
Oct 20
Sold Nosold 57¢$7.7KExited
New York wins
Oct 8, 2 fills
Yes51¢$1.5K-$1.5K
New York wins
Oct 8, 20 fills
Sold Nosold 76¢$1.6KExited
See every position across 8 markets

Biggest wins

  1. 1
    New York wins
    $968 on Yes at 55¢, Sep 27
    +$792
  2. 2
    Boston at San Antonio Winner?
    $494 on Yes at 83¢, Mar 11
    +$101
See all of their wins

Most traded markets

EntryTradesWonProfit
Will Golden State win the 2026 Women's Pro Basketball Championship?1+$0
Will the San Antonio win the 2026 Pro Basketball Finals?15¢170%-$944
New York wins52¢2560%-$658
KXWNBA-26-GS13¢1+$0
BTC price up in next 15 mins?45¢160%-$699

When they trade

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
12am6am12pm6pm11pm

Activity, last 90 days

Jul 23Oct 20

Profit by month

Mar 2026-$1.5K
Sep 2026+$507
Oct 2026-$1.5K

Kalshi leaderboards

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