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Stats as of
tough.risk
+$1.3K
- Tracked Trades
- 551
- First Seen
- May 30, 2026
- Last Trade
- Oct 31, 2026
- Best In College football
- 63% won · 51 settled · +$569.42
tough.risk is a Kalshi trader with 551 trades tracked by RivoMarkets, 163 wins and 198 losses on settled markets, $1.3K net profit on those trades. Most recent public trade: KXMVECROSSCATEGORY-S2026D6SBITPPKRVMX7GN-MNAVHWZIK on Oct 31.
- Win rate
- 45%
- Return on settled
- +5%
- Money traded
- $74.5K
- Typical trade
- $90.81
- Avg entry
- 26¢
- Kalshi rank
- #3,482
Profit over time
+$1.8K-$514.00
May 30Oct 25
Win rate against the odds
PaidTradesImpliedWonEdge
Under 20¢1024%4%+0 pts
20 to 40¢4032%38%+5 pts
40 to 60¢21253%55%+2 pts
60 to 80¢13167%65%-2 pts
Over 80¢6692%80%-12 pts
Results by bet size
TradesWonProfit
$0 to $2313825%+$453.65
$24 to $9113852%+$7.85
$92 to $11313850%-$950.62
$113 to $11K13762%+$1.8K
Categories
TradesWonProfit
Parlays18218%-$223.24
Baseball12354%+$452.63
College football8663%+$569.42
NFL5358%+$115.04
WNBA5764%+$452.34
Soccer2136%-$462.14
Side taken
Yes 56%44% No
If you had copied tough.risk
$100 per bet, last 90 days
-$3,093.05
Profit
on $14,400.00 staked
60-84
Record
42% win rate
-21%
Return
+$109.08-$3.1K
Aug 31Oct 19
-$3.7K
Max drawdown
1013% below peak
—
Return / drawdown
no profit to weigh yet
0.63×
Profit factor
$5.3K won vs $8.4K lost
-1.4 pts
Edge vs implied
42% won at 43¢ avg
- Longest losing streak
- 9
- Deepest drawdown
- 130 trades
By category
sports144 settled-21%
Tracked entries, settled markets. No fees or slippage.
Recent positions
MarketSideEntryAmountResult
KXMVECROSSCATEGORY-S2026D6SBITPPKRVMX7GN-MNAVHWZIK
Oct 31
Kent St. wins 1H by over 2.5 points
Oct 31
Parlay: Boston + Not UCF wins by over 10.5 points + Tulane wins by over 2.5 points
Oct 31
Biggest wins
- 1+$580.41Los Angeles D vs New York M Winner?$870.62 on Yes at 60¢, Jul 25
- 2+$576.60yes Miami,yes Detroit,yes New York M,yes Texas,yes Baltimore,yes Over 11.5 runs scored,no Over 7.5 goals scored,yes Mexico,yes Dallas$4.65 on Yes at 1¢, Jun 11
- 3+$462.54yes Carolina,yes Pittsburgh$265.31 on Yes at 36¢, Oct 18
Most traded markets
EntryTradesWonProfit
yes Atlanta,yes Miami,yes New Orleans,yes Toronto,no Los Angeles L wins by over 8.5 points,yes Tulsa,yes Virginia,no Air Force wins by over 7.5 points,no UConn wins by over 15.5 points,no NC St. wins by over 7.5 points,no Yale wins by over 8.5 points,no Over 47.5 points,yes Colorado0¢20%-$8.89
yes Christian McCaffrey: 25+,yes George Kittle: 70+,yes Antonio Williams: 25+,yes Rachaad White: 25+,yes Terry McLaurin: 40+,yes Brock Purdy: 20+,yes Christian McCaffrey: 50+,yes Jayden Daniels: 25+,yes Brandin Cooks: 1+,yes Jayden Daniels: 1+0¢20%-$9.27
yes Baylor,yes Buffalo,yes SMU,yes Miami (OH),yes Florida A&M,yes Butler,yes Richmond,yes Indiana,yes North Texas,yes Dayton,no LSU wins by over 7.5 points,yes Florida Atlantic wins by over 10.5 points0¢20%-$4.55
KXMVECROSSCATEGORY0-S2026W36CKBKLVTJRW7BO-KQ6MGPTDJ1+$0.00
yes Los Angeles D,yes Boston,yes England advances,yes Indiana8¢20%-$89.87
When they trade
Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
12am6am12pm6pm11pm
Activity, last 90 days
Aug 3Oct 31
Profit by month
May 2026+$177.91
Jun 2026-$213.16
Jul 2026+$1.2K
Aug 2026+$229.20
Sep 2026+$19.93
Oct 2026-$177.35
Kalshi leaderboards
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