rivomarkets
Polymarket

PavtheGreat

0x048a9d673a40171a1cf44ef518893d35fdf09be4

+$2.7K
Tracked Trades
427
First Seen
May 15, 2026
Last Trade
Sep 30, 2026
Best In Tech and AI
73% won · 26 settled · +$1.3K

PavtheGreat is a Polymarket trader with 427 large trades tracked by RivoMarkets, 46 wins and 18 losses on settled markets, $2.7K net profit on those trades. Most recent public trade: Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? on Sep 30.

Win rate
72%
Return on settled
+15%
Money traded
$113.0K
Typical trade
$230
Avg entry
46¢
Polymarket rank
#2,021

Profit over time

+$2.7K-$730
Jun 16Sep 30

Win rate against the odds

PaidTradesImpliedWonEdge
Under 20¢789%0%-9 pts
20 to 40¢5130%75%+45 pts
40 to 60¢4651%33%-17 pts
60 to 80¢11072%76%+4 pts
Over 80¢13587%100%+13 pts

Results by bet size

TradesWonProfit
$0 to $9410553%+$193
$94 to $23010560%-$294
$230 to $45410582%+$1.7K
$455 to $1.0K10593%+$1.1K

Categories

TradesWonProfit
World politics11088%+$971
Commodities6582%+$184
US elections80100%+$96
Tech and AI6873%+$1.3K
Companies4575%+$1.2K
Entertainment1825%-$415

Side taken

Yes 50%50% No

If you had copied PavtheGreat

$100 per trade, last 90 days

+$901
Profit
on $6200 staked
45-17
Record
73% win rate
+15%
Return
134 still open
Profit over time62 settled trades
+$985-$188
Jul 6Sep 28
-$324
Max drawdown
28% below peak
2.8×
Return / drawdown
profit per $1 of the dip
1.53×
Profit factor
$2.6K won vs $1.7K lost
+7.3 pts
Edge vs implied
73% won at 65¢ avg
Longest losing streak
2
Deepest drawdown
8 trades

By category

politics7 settled+51%
finance20 settled+26%
culture32 settled+3%

Tracked entries, settled markets. No fees or slippage.

Open positions

110 open positions worth $32.5K

The markets PavtheGreat is in right now, the side, the size and the price paid. Subscribers see each one as it opens and can copy it in one click.

See what PavtheGreat is holding

Recent positions

MarketSideEntryAmountResult
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?
Sep 30
Sold Yessold 27¢$123Exited
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026?
Sep 30
Sold Yessold 40¢$23Exited
Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?
Sep 30, 3 fills
No79¢$1.2K+$298
See every position across 320 markets

Biggest wins

  1. 1
    Google Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" by August 31, 2026?
    $490 on Yes at 31¢, Aug 28
    +$1.1K
  2. 2
    Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?
    $728 on Yes at 50¢, Jul 26
    +$732
  3. 3
    Will GitHub's longest critical incident in September 2026 be at least 12 hours?
    $1.0K on No at 72¢, Aug 24
    +$399
See all of their wins

Most traded markets

EntryTradesWonProfit
Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of September 2026?88¢4100%+$290
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?84¢2+$0
Will Anthropic IPO by October 15, 2026?83¢4+$0
Will Lindsay Clancy be the #1 searched person on Google this year?82¢2+$0
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?90¢3+$0

When they trade

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
12am6am12pm6pm11pm

Activity, last 90 days

Jul 3Sep 30

Profit by month

Jun 2026-$137
Jul 2026+$207
Aug 2026+$1.6K
Sep 2026+$949

How they build positions

Closed a position67%
Trimmed a position33%

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