rivomarkets

Stats as of

Polymarket

probability

0x74f1b8944c7b10f7239e3dda0de6b8ee42e816a8

+$2.7K
Tracked Trades
939
First Seen
Jul 26, 2026
Last Trade
Oct 15, 2026
Best In World politics
85% won · 59 settled · +$1.8K

probability is a Polymarket trader with 939 trades tracked by RivoMarkets, 684 wins and 50 losses on settled markets, $2.7K net profit on those trades. Most recent public trade: Will Inter Miami CF vs. New York City FC end in a draw? on Oct 15.

Win rate
93%
Return on settled
+0%
Money traded
$691.1K
Typical trade
$122
Avg entry
89¢
Polymarket rank
#3,722

Profit over time

+$5.4K-$53
Jul 26Oct 15

Win rate against the odds

PaidTradesImpliedWonEdge
Under 20¢1495%6%+0 pts
20 to 40¢2429%36%+7 pts
40 to 60¢3950%81%+31 pts
60 to 80¢1366%75%+9 pts
Over 80¢71499%100%+1 pts

Results by bet size

TradesWonProfit
$0 to $3223578%-$17
$33 to $12223596%+$583
$122 to $49623596%-$113
$498 to $55K23498%+$2.2K

Categories

TradesWonProfit
US elections27097%+$315
Other sports50100%+$987
Soccer61100%+$278
World politics9185%+$1.8K
Other finance184100%+$217
Other politics7100%+$109

Side taken

Yes 35%65% No

If you had copied probability

$100 per trade, last 90 days

+$13
Profit
on $73400 staked
684-50
Record
93% win rate
+0%
Return
115 still open
Profit over time734 settled trades
+$1.3K-$757
Jul 20Oct 12
-$2.1K
Max drawdown
147% below peak
0.0×
Return / drawdown
profit per $1 of the dip
1.00×
Profit factor
$5.0K won vs $5.0K lost
+1.4 pts
Edge vs implied
93% won at 92¢ avg
Longest losing streak
5
Deepest drawdown
233 trades

By category

politics359 settled+3%
finance196 settled+0%
sports158 settled-5%
culture21 settled-26%

Tracked entries, settled markets. No fees or slippage.

Open positions

74 open positions worth $95.5K

The markets probability is in right now, the side, the size and the price paid. Subscribers see each one as it opens and can copy it in one click.

See what probability is holding

Recent positions

MarketSideEntryAmountResult
Will Inter Miami CF vs. New York City FC end in a draw?
Oct 15
No99¢$1.1K+$11
Sydney Roosters vs. Newcastle Knights
Oct 4, 2 fills
Newcastle Knights12¢$1.4K-$1.4K
Will Anduril have the highest private market valuation on September 30?
Oct 1, 3 fills
No100¢$1.1K+$1
See every position across 545 markets

Biggest wins

  1. 1
    Will Count Binface win 10–20% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?
    $7.8K on No at 79¢, Aug 14
    +$2.0K
  2. 2
    North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. Geelong Cats
    $93.7K on Geelong Cats at 99¢, Aug 16
    +$949
  3. 3
    Will Rebecca Cooke be the WI-03 Democratic nominee?
    $27.8K on Yes at 98¢, Aug 12
    +$591
See all of their wins

Most traded markets

EntryTradesWonProfit
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. Geelong Cats99¢11100%+$950
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-08-08?100¢5100%+$88
Will Modena FC win on 2026-08-08?100¢4100%+$57
Will Rebecca Cooke be the WI-03 Democratic nominee?98¢4100%+$591
Todd Blanche nomination withdrawn by August 31?99¢5100%+$108

When they trade

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
12am6am12pm6pm11pm

Activity, last 90 days

Jul 18Oct 15

Profit by month

Jul 2026+$728
Aug 2026+$3.4K
Sep 2026-$187
Oct 2026-$1.3K

How they build positions

Closed a position33%
Opened a new position33%
Trimmed a position33%

Polymarket leaderboards

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