rivomarkets

Stats as of

CalculatedRisk08

0xe937357d6b851c08f258fc0b325fd71dfb06d46a

+$536
Tracked Trades
1,001
First Seen
Feb 21, 2026
Last Trade
Oct 3, 2026

CalculatedRisk08 is a Polymarket trader with 1,001 trades tracked by RivoMarkets, 10 wins and 49 losses on settled markets, $536 net profit on those trades. Most recent public trade: Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 16? on Oct 3.

Win rate
17%
Return on settled
+33%
Money traded
$39.3K
Typical trade
$15
Avg entry
17¢
Polymarket rank
#6,763

Profit over time

+$630-$523
Sep 3Oct 2

Win rate against the odds

PaidTradesImpliedWonEdge
Under 20¢3666%0%-6 pts
20 to 40¢25029%60%+31 pts
40 to 60¢18950%13%-37 pts
60 to 80¢8069%
Over 80¢11692%

Results by bet size

TradesWonProfit
$0 to $52510%-$45
$5 to $1525013%-$33
$15 to $3725010%-$148
$37 to $1.3K25047%+$762

Categories

TradesWonProfit
World politics222+$0
Soccer13429%-$97
Other politics1860%-$76
Companies11575%+$423
Weather1090%-$71
Bitcoin180%-$306

Side taken

Yes 68%32% No

If you had copied CalculatedRisk08

$100 per trade, last 90 days

-$2664
Profit
on $5900 staked
10-49
Record
17% win rate
-45%
Return
104 still open
Profit over time59 settled trades
+$0-$2.7K
Jul 13Sep 28
-$3.3K
Max drawdown
never got above break-even
—
Return / drawdown
no profit to weigh yet
0.46×
Profit factor
$2.2K won vs $4.9K lost
-0.4 pts
Edge vs implied
17% won at 17¢ avg
Longest losing streak
17
Deepest drawdown
40 trades

By category

finance8 settled+176%
sports7 settled-34%
culture5 settled-46%
crypto20 settled-85%
politics19 settled-100%

Tracked entries, settled markets. No fees or slippage.

Open positions

38 open positions worth $1.5K

The markets CalculatedRisk08 is in right now, the side, the size and the price paid. Subscribers see each one as it opens and can copy it in one click.

See what CalculatedRisk08 is holding

Recent positions

MarketSideEntryAmountResult
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 on October 2?
Oct 2, 2 fills
Yes44¢$44-$44
Will Ethereum reach $2,850 on October 2?
Oct 2, 3 fills
Yes14¢$50-$50
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by October 31?
Oct 2, 4 fills
Yes29¢sold 37¢$267+$644
See every position across 383 markets

Biggest wins

  1. 1
    0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by October 31?
    $267 on Yes at 29¢, Oct 1
    +$644
  2. 2
    Another critical Cloudflare incident by October 31, 2026?
    $141 on Yes at 24¢, Oct 1
    +$438
  3. 3
    Will there be exactly 2 ChatGPT outages in September 2026?
    $89 on Yes at 37¢, Sep 25
    +$152
See all of their wins

Most traded markets

EntryTradesWonProfit
Iran leadership change by December 31?62¢2+$0
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in September?25¢40%-$185
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026?32¢7+$0
ChatGPT Outage by March 15?60¢21+$0
Will an Iranian agent be charged in the US by April 30?24¢7+$0

When they trade

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
12am6am12pm6pm11pm

Activity, last 90 days

Jul 6Oct 3

Profit by month

Sep 2026+$199
Oct 2026+$338

How they build positions

Closed a position50%
Trimmed a position50%

Similar Polymarket traders

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