Fed Rate Decision Odds: Hike 25 bps
Live odds on Hike 25 bps for the Fed's next rate decision from Kalshi, Polymarket, Polymarket US and Gemini. Bid, ask and order book on each venue, with price history and whale bets.
KalshiPolymarketPolymarket USGemini
Polymarket
GeminiHike 25 bps
34%median across venues−8 pts
$100 pays $294on Polymarket, before fees
| Venue | Bid | Ask | Spread | Depth ±5¢ | Vol 24h | Vol total | Open int. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 34¢ | 35¢ | $161K | $265K | |||
| Polymarket | 33¢ | 34¢ | $644K | ||||
| Polymarket US | 33¢ | 34¢ | |||||
| Gemini | 33¢ | 36¢ |
Buy $1,000 of Hike 25 bps YES now
| Venue | Avg fill | Fee | Contracts | Pays if YES | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 35¢ | $44 | 2,732 | $2,732 | |
| Polymarket | 34¢ | $32 | 2,847 | $2,847 | |
| Polymarket US | 34¢ | $44 | 2,812 | $2,812 | |
| Gemini | 55¢ | Book fills only $883 of $1,000 | Fills only $883 | ||
Walks each venue's live asks with its own taker fee. Green is the most payout for the money.
Price by venue
Kalshi35¢Polymarket33.5¢Polymarket US34¢Gemini35¢
30¢40¢50¢60¢70¢
Sep 24Sep 26Sep 27Sep 29Oct 1
Whale money by day, 30 days
YES $1.4MNO $888KSep 2Today
Whale trades
- $4.9K5h ago
YES No change @ 66¢
- $9.8K11h ago
NO Hike 25 bps @ 68¢
- $7.9K11h ago
NO No change @ 34.5¢
- See all 2,598 whale trades
Biggest positions
Order booksHike 25 bps YES
Kalshi
Yes priceSizeValue
35¢3.3K$1.2K
37¢533$197
38¢12$5
41¢40$16
47¢10$5
Spread1¢
34¢30K$10K
33¢51K$17K
32¢17K$5.3K
31¢20K$6.2K
30¢19K$5.7K
Polymarket
Yes priceSizeValue
34¢22K$7.5K
35¢66K$23K
36¢12K$4.3K
37¢7.8K$2.9K
38¢6.1K$2.3K
Spread1¢
33¢134K$44K
32¢217K$69K
31¢745$231
30¢3.7K$1.1K
29¢1.2K$347
Polymarket US
Yes priceSizeValue
34¢6.5K$2.2K
35¢15K$5.1K
36¢1.0K$368
39¢1$0
44¢244$107
Spread1¢
33¢321$106
32¢46$15
31¢274$85
30¢25K$7.6K
29¢25K$7.2K
Gemini
Yes priceSizeValue
36¢250$90
38¢322$122
65¢975$634
99¢10$10
Spread3¢
33¢250$83
32¢625$200