Fed Rate Decision Odds: Hike 50+ bps
Live odds on Hike 50+ bps for the Fed's next rate decision from Kalshi, Polymarket, Polymarket US and Gemini. Bid, ask and order book on each venue, with price history and whale bets.
KalshiPolymarketPolymarket USGemini
Polymarket
GeminiHike 50+ bps
1%median across venues
$100 pays $16,667on Polymarket, before fees
| Venue | Bid | Ask | Spread | Depth ±5¢ | Vol 24h | Vol total | Open int. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 1¢ | $162 | $7.0K | ||||
| Polymarket | 0.5¢ | 0.6¢ | $152K | ||||
| Polymarket US | 1¢ | 2¢ | |||||
| Gemini | 2¢ |
Buy $1,000 of Hike 50+ bps YES now
| Venue | Avg fill | Fee | Contracts | Pays if YES | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 1¢ | $65 | 93,519 | $93,519 | |
| Polymarket | 0.6¢ | $47 | 158,775 | $158,776 | |
| Polymarket US | 4¢ | $63 | 23,470 | $23,470 | |
| Gemini | 3¢ | Book fills only $8 of $1,000 | Fills only $8 | ||
Walks each venue's live asks with its own taker fee. Green is the most payout for the money.
Price by venue
Kalshi1¢Polymarket0.5¢Polymarket US2¢
0.5¢1¢1.5¢2¢2.5¢
Sep 24Sep 26Sep 27Sep 29Oct 1
Whale money by day, 30 days
YES $2.3KNO $112KSep 2Today
Whale trades
- $4.9K5h ago
YES No change @ 66¢
- $9.8K11h ago
NO Hike 25 bps @ 68¢
- $7.9K11h ago
NO No change @ 34.5¢
- See all 2,598 whale trades
Biggest positions
Order booksHike 50+ bps YES
Kalshi
Yes priceSizeValue
1¢293K$2.9K
2¢1.3M$25K
3¢129K$3.9K
4¢7.4K$297
5¢8.8K$441
Spread
Polymarket
Yes priceSizeValue
0.6¢193K$1.2K
0.7¢81K$569
0.8¢20K$160
1¢6.0K$60
1.1¢35$0
Spread0.1¢
0.5¢283K$1.4K
0.4¢851K$3.4K
0.3¢1.3M$3.8K
0.2¢1.6M$3.1K
0.1¢2.4M$2.4K
Polymarket US
Yes priceSizeValue
2¢19$0
3¢97$3
4¢26K$1.0K
5¢25K$1.3K
8¢106$8
Spread1¢
1¢69K$687
Gemini
Yes priceSizeValue
2¢5$0
3¢250$8
Spread