Fed Rate Decision Odds: Cut 25 bps
Live odds on Cut 25 bps for the Fed's next rate decision from Kalshi, Polymarket, Polymarket US and Gemini. Bid, ask and order book on each venue, with price history and whale bets.
KalshiPolymarketPolymarket USGemini
Polymarket
GeminiCut 25 bps
1%median across venues
$100 pays $20,000on Polymarket, before fees
| Venue | Bid | Ask | Spread | Depth ±5¢ | Vol 24h | Vol total | Open int. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 1¢ | $234 | $4.8K | ||||
| Polymarket | 0.4¢ | 0.5¢ | $316K | ||||
| Polymarket US | 1¢ | 2¢ | |||||
| Gemini | 1¢ | 2¢ |
Buy $1,000 of Cut 25 bps YES now
| Venue | Avg fill | Fee | Contracts | Pays if YES | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 1¢ | $65 | 93,519 | $93,519 | |
| Polymarket | 0.5¢ | $47 | 190,521 | $190,522 | |
| Polymarket US | 3.3¢ | $63 | 28,324 | $28,324 | |
| Gemini | 5.9¢ | Book fills only $154 of $1,000 | Fills only $154 | ||
Walks each venue's live asks with its own taker fee. Green is the most payout for the money.
Price by venue
Kalshi1¢Polymarket0.4¢Polymarket US2¢Gemini2¢
0¢5¢10¢
Sep 24Sep 26Sep 27Sep 29Oct 1
Whale money by day, 30 days
YES $6.5KNO $31KSep 2Today
Whale trades
- $4.9K5h ago
YES No change @ 66¢
- $9.8K11h ago
NO Hike 25 bps @ 68¢
- $7.9K11h ago
NO No change @ 34.5¢
- See all 2,598 whale trades
Biggest positions
Order booksCut 25 bps YES
Kalshi
Yes priceSizeValue
1¢1.8M$18K
2¢155K$3.1K
3¢160K$4.8K
4¢6.1K$245
5¢9.7K$487
Spread
Polymarket
Yes priceSizeValue
0.5¢249K$1.2K
0.6¢26K$153
0.7¢5.9K$41
0.8¢792$6
1¢4.5K$45
Spread0.1¢
0.4¢1.1M$4.3K
0.3¢2.1M$6.3K
0.2¢2.3M$4.5K
0.1¢831K$831
Polymarket US
Yes priceSizeValue
2¢9.6K$192
3¢403$12
4¢26K$1.0K
5¢20K$1.0K
8¢100$8
Spread1¢
1¢57K$566
Gemini
Yes priceSizeValue
2¢2.3K$47
99¢99$98
Spread1¢
1¢750$8