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Texas Senate Odds 2026

Live odds for the Texas Senate race from Kalshi, Polymarket, Polymarket US and Gemini. Compare every candidate's price, order book and whale bets across venues.

KalshiPolymarketPolymarket USGemini

James Talarico

62%

−1 pts

  • 62%
  • 63%
  • 62%
  • 64%

Ken Paxton

39%

−1 pts

  • 39%
  • 38%
  • 39%
  • 42%

Live odds

40%50%60%70%
James Talarico62%Ken Paxton39%
Sep 19Sep 25Oct 1Oct 7Oct 13Oct 19

The median price across venues, this month. Point at a name to pick out its line, or at the graph to read every candidate on that day.

  • James Talarico62%
  • Ken Paxton38%
Week
James Talarico62%63%62%64%
Ken Paxton39%38%39%42%

Order booksJames Talarico YES

Kalshi
Yes priceSizeValue
62¢335K$208K
63¢262K$165K
64¢144K$92K
65¢132K$86K
66¢94K$62K
67¢93K$63K
68¢58K$40K
69¢23K$16K
Spread1¢
61¢38K$23K
60¢270K$162K
59¢6.1K$3.6K
58¢1.2K$714
57¢356$203
56¢100K$56K
55¢3.1K$1.7K
54¢1.1K$581
Polymarket
Yes priceSizeValue
63¢23K$14K
64¢41K$26K
65¢138K$90K
66¢69K$46K
67¢6.1K$4.1K
68¢6.9K$4.7K
69¢41K$28K
70¢45K$32K
Spread1¢
62¢61K$38K
61¢31K$19K
60¢99K$59K
59¢80K$47K
58¢46K$27K
57¢810$462
56¢326$182
55¢324$178
Polymarket US
Yes priceSizeValue
62¢283K$175K
63¢62K$39K
65¢8.4K$5.4K
66¢5.0K$3.3K
70¢100$70
94¢415$390
95¢200$190
96¢200K$192K
Spread1¢
61¢395K$241K
60¢7.0K$4.2K
59¢5.0K$3.0K
58¢20$12
53¢6$3
40¢12K$5.0K
7¢200$14
6¢200K$12K
Gemini
Yes priceSizeValue
64¢100$64
65¢500$325
67¢628$421
Spread2¢
62¢35$22
60¢100$60
58¢372$216
49¢960$470
15¢2.5K$375
1¢10K$101

Where to bet

  • PolymarketCheapest on 1 of 2 candidates
  • KalshiCheapest on 0 of 2 candidates
  • Polymarket USCheapest on 0 of 2 candidates
  • GeminiCheapest on 0 of 2 candidates

Whale trades

  • $1.1K39m ago

    YES Ken Paxton @ 39¢

    Polymarket US

  • $3.1K3h ago

    NO Ken Paxton @ 62¢

    twinna

  • $1.2K6h ago

    YES James Talarico @ 62¢

    ResolvedFM

  • See all 3,360 whale trades

Biggest positions

  1. 1YES Ken Paxton$193Kbotbot
  2. 2YES Ken Paxton$174Ktmoneeey
  3. 3NO Ken Paxton$139Kwan123
  4. 4NO James Talarico$137KMightyManatee
  5. 5NO Ken Paxton$134Ktetrose
  6. 6YES James Talarico$127KDo-Not-Redeem
  7. 7NO Ken Paxton$122Kfoodenjoyer
  8. 8YES Ken Paxton$110Kneutralwave23
Build a bot on this marketGet a price alert when these odds move

James Talarico is ahead at 62%, down 1 pt this week. Ken Paxton next at 39%. Kalshi carries 76% of the day's $289K volume. Whales put $2.7M on YES and $2.1M on NO in 30 days, most on Ken Paxton. Settles Nov 3, 2026.

More markets

  • Michigan Senate Odds 2026
    Who will win the 2026 Michigan Senate race?
  • Maine Senate Odds 2026
    Who will win the 2026 Maine Senate race?
  • Ohio Senate Odds 2026
    Who will win the 2026 Ohio Senate special election?
  • Iowa Senate Odds 2026
    Who will win the 2026 Iowa Senate race?
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