Odds Democrats Win the Senate in 2026
Live odds on Democrats for control of the Senate from Kalshi, Polymarket and Polymarket US. Bid, ask and order book on each venue, with price history and whale bets.
KalshiPolymarketPolymarket US
PolymarketDemocrats
63%median across venues+1 pts
$100 pays $162on Polymarket US, before fees
| Venue | Bid | Ask | Spread | Depth ±5¢ | Vol 24h | Vol total | Open int. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 62¢ | 63¢ | $126K | $1.6M | |||
| Polymarket | 62¢ | 63¢ | $14K | ||||
| Polymarket US | 61.8¢ | 61.9¢ |
Buy $1,000 of Democrats YES now
| Venue | Avg fill | Fee | Contracts | Pays if YES |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 63¢ | $25 | 1,547 | $1,547 |
| Polymarket | 63¢ | $15 | 1,564 | $1,564 |
| Polymarket US | 61.9¢ | $26 | 1,573 | $1,573 |
Walks each venue's live asks with its own taker fee. Green is the most payout for the money.
Price by venue
Kalshi63¢Polymarket62.5¢Polymarket US61.9¢
60¢62¢64¢66¢
Sep 24Sep 26Sep 27Sep 29Oct 1
Whale money by day, 30 days
YES $581KNO $400KSep 2Today
Whale trades
- $2.1K9h ago
YES Republicans @ 39.1¢
Polymarket US
- $2.0K9h ago
YES Republicans @ 39.1¢
Polymarket US
- $1.5K9h ago
YES Republicans @ 39.1¢
Polymarket US
- See all 990 whale trades
Biggest positions
Order booksDemocrats YES
Kalshi
Yes priceSizeValue
63¢37K$24K
64¢48K$31K
65¢61K$40K
66¢6.2K$4.1K
67¢8.6K$5.7K
Spread1¢
62¢48K$30K
61¢54K$33K
60¢14K$8.5K
59¢15K$8.7K
58¢2.9K$1.7K
Polymarket
Yes priceSizeValue
63¢94K$59K
64¢39K$25K
65¢53K$34K
66¢13K$8.6K
67¢10K$7.0K
Spread1¢
62¢68K$42K
61¢28K$17K
60¢54K$33K
59¢227$134
58¢591$343
Polymarket US
Yes priceSizeValue
61.9¢19K$12K
62.4¢900$562
62.8¢1$1
62.9¢16$10
63¢1.0K$630
Spread0.1¢
61.8¢106K$65K
61.4¢300$184
61.3¢12$7
61.2¢200$122
61.1¢60$37