Odds Republicans Win the Senate in 2026
Live odds on Republicans for control of the Senate from Kalshi, Polymarket and Polymarket US. Bid, ask and order book on each venue, with price history and whale bets.
KalshiPolymarketPolymarket US
PolymarketRepublicans
38%median across venues
$100 pays $263on Kalshi, before fees
| Venue | Bid | Ask | Spread | Depth ±5¢ | Vol 24h | Vol total | Open int. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 37¢ | 38¢ | $32K | $1.3M | |||
| Polymarket | 37¢ | 38¢ | $2.6K | ||||
| Polymarket US | 38.8¢ | 38.9¢ |
Buy $1,000 of Republicans YES now
| Venue | Avg fill | Fee | Contracts | Pays if YES |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 38¢ | $42 | 2,522 | $2,522 |
| Polymarket | 38¢ | $24 | 2,567 | $2,568 |
| Polymarket US | 38.9¢ | $41 | 2,465 | $2,465 |
Walks each venue's live asks with its own taker fee. Green is the most payout for the money.
Price by venue
Kalshi38¢Polymarket37.5¢Polymarket US38.9¢
36¢38¢40¢
Sep 24Sep 26Sep 27Sep 29Oct 1
Whale money by day, 30 days
YES $291KNO $270KSep 2Today
Whale trades
- $2.1K9h ago
YES Republicans @ 39.1¢
Polymarket US
- $2.0K9h ago
YES Republicans @ 39.1¢
Polymarket US
- $1.5K9h ago
YES Republicans @ 39.1¢
Polymarket US
- See all 990 whale trades
Biggest positions
Order booksRepublicans YES
Kalshi
Yes priceSizeValue
38¢3.0K$1.2K
39¢57K$22K
40¢51K$20K
41¢1.1K$451
42¢62K$26K
Spread1¢
37¢29K$11K
36¢20K$7.3K
35¢4.2K$1.5K
34¢6.2K$2.1K
33¢12K$4.1K
Polymarket
Yes priceSizeValue
38¢31K$12K
39¢45K$18K
40¢114K$46K
41¢30K$12K
42¢10K$4.4K
Spread1¢
37¢61K$22K
36¢21K$7.4K
35¢6.9K$2.4K
34¢4.7K$1.6K
33¢1.3K$437
Polymarket US
Yes priceSizeValue
38.9¢23K$9.1K
39¢2.6K$1.0K
39.1¢55K$22K
39.4¢2$1
40¢200$80
Spread0.1¢
38.8¢7.5K$2.9K
38.4¢13K$5.0K
38.3¢3$1
38.1¢132$50
38¢14$5