Alaska Senate Odds 2026
Live odds for the Alaska Senate race from Kalshi, Polymarket, Polymarket US and Gemini. Compare every candidate's price, order book and whale bets across venues.
KalshiPolymarketPolymarket USGemini
Polymarket
GeminiMary Peltola
74%
- 75%
- 74%
- 74%
- 77%
Dan Sullivan
26%
+1 pts
- 26%
- 27%
- 26%
- 30%
Live odds
20%30%40%50%60%70%80%
Mary Peltola74%Dan Sullivan26%
Sep 19Oct 1Oct 13
The median price across venues, this month. Point at a name to pick out its line, or at the graph to read every candidate on that day.
| Week | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mary Peltola | 75% | 74% | 74% | 77% | |
| Dan Sullivan | 26% | 27% | 26% | 30% |
Order booksMary Peltola YES
Kalshi
Yes priceSizeValue
75¢2.9K$2.2K
76¢30K$23K
77¢8.0K$6.2K
78¢105$82
79¢131$104
80¢1.1K$877
81¢212$172
Spread1¢
74¢54K$40K
73¢1.0K$754
72¢35$25
71¢5.0K$3.5K
70¢3.7K$2.6K
69¢31$21
68¢25K$17K
67¢21$14
Polymarket
Yes priceSizeValue
74¢28K$21K
75¢80K$60K
76¢241K$183K
77¢95K$73K
78¢6.3K$4.9K
79¢5.5K$4.3K
80¢5.0K$4.0K
81¢5.0K$4.1K
Spread1¢
73¢40K$29K
72¢16K$11K
71¢26K$18K
70¢28K$19K
69¢227$157
68¢4.2K$2.9K
66¢1.0K$660
63¢1.0K$630
Polymarket US
Yes priceSizeValue
74¢13K$9.9K
75¢81K$61K
76¢92K$70K
78¢1$1
96¢25K$24K
98¢200$196
99¢30K$30K
Spread1¢
73¢577K$421K
72¢5.1K$3.7K
71¢5.0K$3.6K
65¢7$5
3¢4.6K$139
2¢200$4
1¢38K$375
Gemini
Yes priceSizeValue
77¢600$462
78¢67$52
79¢13$10
80¢67$54
82¢66$54
Spread4¢
73¢100$73
70¢67$47
68¢67$46
66¢66$44
Where to bet
- KalshiCheapest on 0 of 2 candidates
- PolymarketCheapest on 0 of 2 candidates
- Polymarket USCheapest on 0 of 2 candidates
- GeminiCheapest on 0 of 2 candidates
Whale trades
- $62036h ago
YES Mary Peltola @ 74¢
Polymarket US
- $2.9K3d ago
YES Dan Sullivan @ 25¢
- $6823d ago
NO Dan Sullivan @ 74¢
Polymarket US
- See all 857 whale trades
Biggest positions
- 1YES Mary Peltola$138Kscottilicious
- 2NO Dan Sullivan$92K0xfcb034ffesa540c81ad37321212f6e0c762feac8
- 3NO Mary Peltola$36K0xF30F7e57080d333ff35558A78719bea46B7dfa3E-1778956766753
- 4NO Mary Peltola$35Klomneivan
- 5YES Mary Peltola$34KPolBandit
- 6NO Dan Sullivan$31Kgopfan2
- 7YES Mary Peltola$27KValen9
- 8YES Dan Sullivan$27KDo-Not-Redeem
Mary Peltola is ahead at 74%. Dan Sullivan next at 26%. Polymarket carries 67% of the day's $12K volume. Whales put $695K on YES and $655K on NO in 30 days, most on Mary Peltola. Settles Nov 3, 2026.